This weekend we’ve got an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these ancient cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and revel in the remainder of the day once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. For this reason, I think we should have a big edge this week should we place in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on those titles they have never heard and will just be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s a tough card this Sunday and I believe we will see a lot of people making errors in money games. Any time I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I love to pile it in my money games and lock those points. I believe this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we could observe numerous knockdowns too which can help, but I think we readily get over 100+ points combined with both of these guys. Let’s let everyone else make the errors and we could lock at a 100+ points and a triumph, and then we just have to find another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up for Bermudez a win. He has quite a slick entry game and when this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up advance points fast and find a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his career and even if he’s winning on the toes, he shoots for takedowns each fight. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it will cost him. I think we can see a 1st round entry here and that should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily repay this price . He has 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will certainly put him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I would not be shocked if Shogun is able to acquire a KO here against Smith, who is taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the past few years but I think he has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I think you need some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
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I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own picks being right and that I can hit the ideal combo. It is hard to choose one favorite fade this week however I shall select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. Thus, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. However, he does not chain together takedowns and that he ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. But I think we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he is my fade of the week.
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