Hello savvy sports investors, today I will unveil an interesting hockey betting strategy that I call”The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. It basically answers the instinctive question I asked myself some time ago:
Taking into consideration the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, should we bet on groups that are presently on a losing streak confronting a team riding a winning streak (from the NHL)?
Let’s see if we could profit from this suggestion!
1. Basic Exploration
To start with, you should notice that the results presented in this article come from a dataset containing information about most of NHL games from the nine (9) seasons covering the 2007/2008 into 2015/2016 period.
Let us kick this off research with an extremely straightforward analysis: we’re betting $1 to every group coming off at least one loss playing against a team coming off at least one win. Here are the results:
Record = 2533-2767 (win percentage = 47.8%)
Gain = -$202.16 (ROI = Return On Investment = -3.8%)
To place these numbers in perspective, just how much money would we have lost or won from utilizing the opposite approach (i.e. betting on teams coming off at least win facing a group coming off at least one loss)? The solution is: -$181.43 (-3.4percent ). As you can see, the first suggested approach isn’t doing any better than the opposite plan. We aren’t off to a good start, but please hang because the sun is about to glow!
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With reduced juice, the gain numbers above become -$100.95 (-1.9%) when gambling the team on a losing streak versus -$89.98 (-1.7%) when gambling the team on a winning series.
2. Length of this Winning and Losing Streaks
All right, let’s now refine our investigation to see whether we could get a winning strategy. But first I’d like to introduce a little bit of notation to simplify the writing for the remainder of the report:
W / number of matches from the winning series L = number of games from the losing streak Teams W teams coming off at least one win
Teams L = groups coming off one reduction Let us study the operation of the suggested strategy both as a function of”w” and”l”. Ideally, we’d like to see our winnings grow as both of these variables go up. In plain English, are we earning more money when financing a team on a big losing streak facing a group on a big winning streak?
Let’s start by focusing solely on the performance of the proposed strategy as a function of”w”, the number of consecutive wins by the group We’re betting against, also called”evaporating”

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